Next session · the S&P 500
Wednesday · Nov 11
Red is the chance of a lower close, green a higher one. A wide day expected, with no clear lean. Roughly a coin flip on direction.
No side today: over 91 graded sessions the read behind this call was right 42% of the time; chance alone would score 48%. We publish a side again when its record beats chance.
We read the options market's own forecast as an independent second opinion, and flag where the crowd disagrees with us. It is quiet while options trading is closed, and returns when the market reopens.
We called 3 of the last 10 sessions right. A coin flip on direction is about half. We keep score in the open.
Each call is marked only on the move from the open to the close, the part of the day still ahead when we make it. We restarted the score on 8 Sept.
Whether the overnight move in futures holds into the 9:30 open, or fades in the first half hour.
ES/NQ overnight strongly red
Futures heavy
QQQ options price a rally; on our record that crowd has usually been wrong, so this reads as a bear vote
Options crowd chasing upside
Updated 5m ago · 7 signals
An outlook built from live market data. It is not a forecast anyone should rely on, and it can be wrong.
Decifer Markets is a media publication. Nothing here is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security.